- Trended corporate and household debt, as a % of GDP, in the US and major economies
- Make a case for what is supportable level. This is the guts of the work, but it would still be helpful to see the bounds
- Once you have your "supportable" level, you can start to develop some hypotheses about how much debt overhang we have, that either has to be paid back or defaulted upon
- Once we have that debt number, it would help me know whether we are 1-2 years away or 5-10 years away.
Of course, how we deal with the banks makes a big difference. No credit even to safe borrowers will definitely bring us further down.
Anyone seen any analyses like the one above?
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