Monday, February 23, 2009

Time To Buy?

I just wish I had some cash left. Actually, I don't really know if now is a good time to buy. People are pretty pessimistic, which probably means go buy. Here is the analysis I would love to see in all of this prognostication:
  • Trended corporate and household debt, as a % of GDP, in the US and major economies
  • Make a case for what is supportable level. This is the guts of the work, but it would still be helpful to see the bounds
  • Once you have your "supportable" level, you can start to develop some hypotheses about how much debt overhang we have, that either has to be paid back or defaulted upon
  • Once we have that debt number, it would help me know whether we are 1-2 years away or 5-10 years away.

Of course, how we deal with the banks makes a big difference. No credit even to safe borrowers will definitely bring us further down.

Anyone seen any analyses like the one above?

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